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COVID-19 Five Years Later: Riding the Black Swan of Change

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COVID-19 Five Years Later (Riding the Black Swan of Change) Sam Palazzolo

The Black Swan Event: Five Years Later

In March 2020, the world came to a standstill. What began as a health crisis quickly evolved into a seismic shift in how businesses operate, how leaders make decisions, and how economies function. Now, five years later, we find ourselves in a landscape permanently altered by the pandemic. The question isn’t just what changed—but how leaders must continue evolving to navigate this new reality.

The best leaders aren’t those who simply survive black swan events; they are the ones who learn to harness those swans and ride them towards success! – Sam Palazzolo

The pandemic forced rapid adaptation, with businesses pivoting overnight. Remote work, digital transformation, supply chain resilience, and shifts in consumer behavior defined the crisis era. But five years later, these are no longer short-term adjustments—they are the foundation of modern business. Drawing insights from UPenn’s Wharton School and other sources, this reflection explores how leaders have ridden the Black Swan of COVID-19 to transform their businesses and redefine leadership.

The Leadership Shift: Agility Over Stability

Before COVID-19, corporate leadership was largely centered on strategic planning and long-term stability. The pandemic, however, demonstrated that agility is the new cornerstone of leadership. Those who adapted quickly—whether by shifting operations online, rethinking supply chains, or redeploying talent—emerged stronger. The leaders who clung to rigid plans struggled.

Key Leadership Lessons:

  • Decisiveness matters. In times of uncertainty, waiting for perfect information is a losing strategy.
  • Adaptability is a competitive advantage. Organizations that embraced change (e.g., remote work, new business models) thrived.
  • Empathy is now a leadership requirement. The human element of leadership—understanding employees’ challenges, mental health, and work-life balance—has taken center stage.

Leadership today isn’t about returning to ‘normal’—it’s about learning to ride Black Swan events and turn uncertainty into opportunity. – Sam Palazzolo

The Workforce Has Changed—Permanently

The workplace of 2019 is long-gone. Hybrid work models, employee expectations, and talent acquisition strategies have been redefined. Five years later, leaders recognize that the war for talent isn’t just about salaries—it’s about flexibility, culture, and purpose.

Key Workforce Shifts:

  • Hybrid and remote work are the norm. While some companies have pushed for a return to office, the most competitive employers offer flexible options.
  • Employee well-being isn’t a perk—it’s a strategy. Mental health support, burnout prevention, and workplace culture are non-negotiable.
  • Skills over degrees. The talent pool is shifting, with businesses prioritizing skills-based hiring over traditional educational credentials.

Digital Transformation: The Acceleration Continues

COVID-19 accelerated digital adoption at an unprecedented rate. Five years later, companies that made early tech investments have pulled ahead, while those lagging behind are struggling to catch up.

Where Businesses Are Winning with Digital:

  • AI and automation. From customer service chatbots to supply chain analytics, businesses are embedding AI to drive efficiency and growth.
  • E-commerce dominance. Online shopping has solidified its place, forcing even legacy brands to refine digital sales strategies.
  • Cybersecurity and data privacy. With increased reliance on digital infrastructure comes an increased need for security and regulatory compliance.

Supply Chain Resilience: From Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case

The pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Businesses reliant on just-in-time manufacturing suffered, while those that diversified sourcing and built buffer stock fared better.

New Supply Chain Strategies:

  • Regionalization over globalization. Companies are balancing offshore and nearshore production to mitigate risk.
  • AI-driven forecasting. Predictive analytics and automation are improving supply chain agility.
  • Stronger supplier relationships. Businesses are fostering deeper partnerships rather than treating suppliers as interchangeable.

Economic & Business Growth: What’s Next?

Five years later, businesses aren’t just recovering—they’re growing differently. Private equity and M&A activity remain strong (There’s an estimated $2Trillion in dry powder waiting to be deployed!), capital is being deployed more cautiously, and businesses that reinvented themselves have unlocked new revenue streams.

Key Growth Trends:

  • Resilient business models. Companies with diversified revenue streams (subscription models, digital products) are outperforming.
  • Selective expansion. Growth strategies are now focused on sustainability rather than aggressive scaling.
  • Data-driven decision-making. Businesses that leverage real-time data are outpacing competitors relying on outdated models.

Business growth today isn’t about bouncing back—it’s about moving forward with greater intelligence and resilience than ever before. – Sam Palazzolo

Leadership Beyond the Pandemic

For CEOs and business leaders, the black swan event from five years ago has been a masterclass in crisis management, adaptation, and transformation. But the challenge now is not simply adjusting to the post-COVID world—it’s leading in it! And as we reflect five years after COVID-19, one truth remains clear: the leaders who embrace change, adapt with intelligence, and continue to innovate will define the next era of business success.

That’s where my CEO Catalyst program comes in… Designed for high-level executives seeking to scale with confidence, this program equips leaders with the strategies, frameworks, and execution tactics needed for today’s challenging business landscape.

Sam Palazzolo, Managing Director @ Tip of the Spear Ventures

Want to lead your business forward? Learn more about my CEO Catalyst here: CEO Catalyst Program

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Leadership has shifted from stability-focused to agility-driven.
  • The workforce now prioritizes flexibility, culture, and well-being.
  • Digital transformation is an ongoing race, with AI and automation leading the way.
  • Supply chain resilience is now a competitive necessity.
  • Business growth strategies are evolving toward sustainability and data-driven decision-making.

COVID-19 Leadership: Are You a Success or Failure? 3 Action Areas!

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The Point: Grade yourself on your COVID-19 Leadership – Are you a success or a failure? You work your entire career to build your leadership brand. Day after day, week after week, and year after year you put forth a valiant effort (or, what we’d like call your “Blood, Sweat, and Spears!”) However, it only takes a moment to wipe out your leadership brand. And with the pandemic gripping the economy, the spotlight shined brightly on your leadership brand. Are you a success or failure so far? In this post, we’ll explore COVID-19 Leadership and determine if you are a success or failure as well as provide three action areas… Enjoy!

COVID-19 Leadership – Are You a Success or Failure?

As we prepare to turn the corner into 2021, I would ask are you a success or failure during these COVID-19 Leadership times? The Greek Philosopher Socrates is quoted as saying “Life contains but two tragedies. One is not to get your heart’s desire; the other is to get it.” 2020 was supposed to be a difficult year for leaders at all levels, as forecasters predicted an economic slowdown a year ago in 2019. Well throw on top of that economic financial recession the suffering and death resulting from the pandemic. COVID-19 has been a time where leaders have potentially experienced both of Socrates tragedies… Simultaneously!

If your heart’s desire as a leader is to be the best leader possible, the actions you have taken and are taking in response to this most disruptive leadership challenge will shape your leadership legacy. You may have achieved success in previous years, making what now seems like the “right” call (or decision) after “right” call. When times are good, it’s easy to get it “right” as a leader. However, now that we’re in a medically induced recession, the “wrong” call or decision is all too common.

The Reason It’s Lonely at the Top – Decisions

Leaders who consider themselves as employee-focused and friendly found themselves in the unenviable position earlier this year of making “tough” decisions. But some leaders chose to make these “tough” decisions actually an “easy” decisions or easy way out of bad business decisions. For example, after considerable review of their organization’s financial performance, many gathered their team members on virtual conferences not to announce a way forward but to share their decision to furlough (i.e., fire, layoff, dismiss) otherwise loyal associates with little to no sensitivity. Worse yet, some other leaders elected to adopt the strategy of “no action” and did nothing (Yes, doing nothing is a choice and therefore a decision). It was only a small minority of leaders who elected to pursue the aforementioned way out or forward (Truly the “tough” decision!)

As the pandemic gripped the globe, I was asked to act as an outside leadership and change consultant on several C-suite level COVID-19 taskforces for our clients. In this role, I had a front-row seat on vastly different crisis leadership approaches. Those differences prompted me to ask the C-suite leaders I worked with what they were learning as a leader from the pandemic. Not only were these C-suite leaders eager to discuss their strategies and insights, including their uncertainties and fears, but they also wanted to hear what other leaders were doing (Perspective on not only successes, but failures as well). These discussions seemed positive, productive and progressive, allowing the C-suite leaders to reinforce certain behaviors moving forward as well as discard others. With doubt, uncertainty, and a lack of clarity we both found value in taking the time to reflect and strategize for a better tomorrow today.

The Power of Zoom

These C-suite leader conversations as measured through Zoom-metrics have consisted of 2,000+ Zoom meetings and 200+ Zoom webinars being conducted on a variety of topics (Leadership, Change, Strategy, Accountability, Delegation, Sales + Business Development, Marketing, Human Resources, Operations, and Finance). C-suite leader attendees were from a variety of industries (Automotive, Banking/Finance/Insurance, Biotechnology + Pharmaceutical, Government – Federal and State, Retail, and Technology – Hardware and Software) representing for-profit and nonprofit organizations, and were geographically dispersed across North America, South America, Europe and the Middle East.

It’s important to note a finding that presents itself in these difficult leadership times, that being leaders – especially high performing ones – are extremely harsh critics of their own performance. While most organizational stakeholders (representing company peers and subordinates) would gage the C-suite leader’s performance as Above Average on a five-point Likert scale (Excellent, Above Average, Average, Below Average, and Very Poor), most C-suite leaders ranked themselves as Below Average (with the harshest of critics ranking themselves Very Poor). That’s right, these seemingly superior C-suite leaders who during previous times reflected little/no self-esteem or self-image issues, now during COVID-19 were convinced that they were not leading up to their fullest potential (perhaps the key is developing “self-compassion” skills as Margaret Wehrenberg Psy.D. shares in her Psychology Today article titled, “What to Do When You Are Your Own Worst Critic”).

COVID-19 Leadership: Are You a Success or Failure? 3 Action Areas

So, during this COVID-19 Leadership moment, do you consider yourself a success or failure? The aforementioned conversations focused on leaders, regardless of their success or failure orientation, excelling in three (3) broad action areas. COVID-19 leaders want to be known for leading with:

  1. Courage (Having created environments with effective Strategies, Action Plans, Goals, Communication, Organization Alignment, Operational Excellence, and Organizational Proficiency)
  2. Poise (Having created environments with Contingency Planning, Organizational and Team Member Prioritization Rankings, Science versus Art, and Championing Ethical Leadership), and/or
  3. Dignity (Having created environments present with Calm, Morality, Compassion, and as odd as it sounds Love)

SUMMARY

I would ask you the same questions I asked these C-suite leaders in closing:

  • What do you want people to say about your leadership during the pandemic?
  • How sure are you that you will be perceived that way?
  • Most importantly, what can you do today to ensure your desired legacy is realized now and into the future?

Sam Palazzolo PS – If you liked this article, you’ll love my “Best Leader in 30 Days!” course! In daily 5-minute or less learning lessons, you’ll be on your way to becoming the best leader possible. For a limited time, you can access the course for FREE by CLICKING HERE

How to Embrace the Power of ‘Yes’ in Business Turbulent Times

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The Point: These are truly turbulent times in business for leadership. Make the right moves, and you’ll be a hero! Make the wrong or no moves, and you’ll be far from a hero!! I’ve seen a lot of negative-speak lately as COVID-19 takes an enhanced grip on the globe. Recognizing that it’s awfully difficult to agree to deals that no longer make sense (especially when your business hair is on fire!), it made me wonder if we’re looking at the business-landscape through too negative a lens? So in this post, we’ll explore how to embrace the power of ‘Yes’ in business turbulent times… Enjoy!

How to Embrace the Power of Yes’

Starting with ‘No’

“I loved saying ‘No’ when times were good… I cherish the opportunity now that times are bad to say it with even more conviction/volume!” a purchasing manager at a client recently shared with me. If they’re like most purchasing managers or leaders I’ve worked with, during negotiation they’ve learned the single best tactic towards achieving a successful outcome for themselves/their company is to begin with ‘No.’ While embracing the power of ‘No’ typically leads to continued negotiations, and hopefully positive (or ‘Yes’) results for both parties, the possibility exists for negotiations to breakdown, stall or worst case scenario come to a screeching halt.

So, what are the effects of starting negotiations with ‘No?’ From Harvard Business School and Harvard’s Department of Psychology, research has been conducted and summarized on how the utilization of ‘No’ not only leads to poor negotiation traction, but often times the negative feelings associated with future negotiations. Furthermore, negotiations that start with ‘No’ typically break down, as participants perceive the inflexibility of the other party.

Starting with ‘Yes’

In business turbulent times such as these, the last thing I would recommend to a client is to take a bad business deal. As a matter of fact, I don’t think even in non-turbulent times taking a bad deal in and of itself is a good option! However, is there a way in which we can successfully not start with ‘No’ during negotiations? What would be the outcome in starting with ‘Yes’ instead?

Starting with ‘Yes’ overcomes the initial negativity often experienced during a negotiation. The inevitable “I should have started higher” thought permeates the negotiators mindset. However, this can not only lead to earlier agreements, shortened sales-cycles, but also better outcomes for both parties now (as well as in the future!)

‘And” is Better Than ‘But’

So how can starting with ‘Yes’ be better in negotiations than starting with ‘No?’ The key, according to a mediation expert, is to utilize the conjunction ‘And’ instead of ‘But’ in negotiation moments. Supported by the Harvard research, this technique often “[O]pens a window of opportunity for addressing multiple issues, and using new approaches, while mitigating the taint of pejorative shadings [leaves both parties].” ‘And’ also avoids the dismissive nature associated with using ‘But’ during negotiations.

Starting with ‘Yes’ using ‘And’ Example

Here’s an example of how to properly utilize ‘Yes’ as well as ‘And’ in a typical negotiation. For framing purposes, your company is being pitched a new software piece that will significantly reduce costs and increase utilization (Yes, this is possible!) However, it’s your birthday and the strategic partner calling on your company knows it… So, they inquire:

SP “I heard it’s your birthday today?”

YOU “Yes, that’s correct, and I’d love a cup of coffee and a doughnut.”

SP “Well then let’s go get one!”

Admittedly, this is not the greatest negotiation example (after all, who wouldn’t like a doughnut, and do we really need to wait until it’s your birthday to have one?!?) But the point I’m making is that if we had started with ‘No’ and utilized ‘But” in the response we’d be looking at a negative negotiation with the potential of stalling/stopping and having caused future negotiation to not occur (All future negotiations!)

SUMMARY

In this post we’ve explored how to embrace the power of ‘Yes’ in business turbulent times such as these. We explored the Harvard research surrounding the negativity of ‘No’ as well as how to positively leverage ‘Yes’ for successful negotiation outcomes. The key in utilizing, and especially in starting with ‘Yes’ is to use the conjunction ‘And’ to stipulate what you’d like to see have happen as a result of beginning, and staying, at ‘Yes.’

Sam Palazzolo